EUROPE'S BIRTHRATE WAR, THE WELFARE STATE CAN'T SURVIVE THIS

by Luca Moretti

Let’s not sugarcoat this: Europe is aging into irrelevance. Fertility rates are tanking across the board, and what’s coming isn’t just a demographic slump; it’s a full-blown societal crack-up. The quiet part nobody wants to say out loud? The European welfare state, that post-war miracle of solidarity, healthcare, pensions, and social safety nets, cannot survive without babies. And we’re fresh out.

Look at the numbers. Replacement-level fertility is 2.1 children per woman. Italy is at 1.2. Spain? 1.16. Poland? 1.2. Greece? Barely 1.3. That’s not a decline, that’s demographic freefall. Eastern Europe’s numbers are even worse in some parts, especially once you factor in emigration. Bulgaria has lost over 10% of its population since 2011. These aren’t “trends.” These are death spirals.

The welfare state is a Ponzi scheme in denial. It only works if the base of the pyramid keeps getting wider, with more young workers supporting the retired. That deal worked when boomers were cranking out kids and economic growth looked endless. But now? Europe is trying to fund 20th-century entitlements with a 21st-century birthrate, and the math doesn’t work. At this rate, in just 25 years, nearly a third of the EU’s population will be over 65.

This isn’t some abstract fiscal problem. It’s existential. Who’s going to pay for hospitals, pensions, elder care, schools, or roads when the working-age population shrinks and the elderly majority starts voting to drain the budget just to survive? You don’t need to be a genius to see where that ends: political instability, generational warfare, and the slow erosion of democratic legitimacy.

So what’s the plan?

Europe’s de facto answer has been immigration. Bring in people from abroad to keep the economic machine humming. But that fix only works if integration succeeds and social cohesion holds. Spoiler: it isn’t holding. From Paris to Malmö to Athens, you’ve got growing parallel societies, resentment on all sides, and politicians terrified of saying anything that sounds like the hard truth. The result? Policy paralysis, cultural insecurity, and increasing polarization, not a recipe for long-term stability.

And let’s talk about the fertility debate itself. Somehow, the idea that Europeans should maybe have more kids is treated like some far-right fever dream. You’ll hear “We shouldn’t force women to breed!” as if the choice is between dystopian Handmaid’s Tale vibes or mass extinction. But nobody’s talking about forcing anyone. The question is why modern Europe, prosperous, educated, and peaceful, has made family life feel like a punishment. Insane rents, no space, precarious jobs, no cultural support for families, and then we act surprised when no one wants to start one?

Even the incentives are a joke. A few hundred euros here, a free kindergarten spot there, nowhere near enough to offset the crushing cost of raising a child. Meanwhile, France, one of the only EU countries still hovering near replacement levels (1.8), has a generous family policy baked deep into its system. It’s not magic. It’s design.

But here’s the twist: this isn’t just a population issue. It’s a civilizational one. Because if you can’t reproduce your society, its people, its values, its culture, you will be replaced. Either by imported populations with different assumptions, or by the slow fade into irrelevance. Either way, Europe becomes something else, not by invasion, but by apathy.

This is the Birthrate War. Not fought with weapons, but with decisions, or indecision. And right now, Europe is losing. Not because people hate the future, but because nobody’s offering one that feels worth building. Until that changes, don’t expect the welfare state, or the continent, to survive the century intact.